Разработка стратегии выхода на африканский рынок электронной коммерции / Development of a strategy to enter the African e-commerce market

In this case, the basic rules of interpretation, which are an integral part of this classification system, are used. The declarant declares the product code in accordance with the HS code, and the customs administration checks whether the classification is correct. When an incorrect classification is detected, the customs administration decides on the classification and can appeal to the court[9]. The identification of the goods and its subsequent classification according to the HS is necessary to establish the conformity of the information provided in the declaration for the goods and in the accompanying documents with the text of the commodity item and the subposition of the HS, to exclude cases of substitution of one product with another. It is obvious that the identification of a product is the establishment of its purpose, material of manufacture, nature of origin, etc. based on the coincidence of the available signs. The need to establish the conformity of the transported goods with the documentation submitted to it suggests that "identification of goods for customs purposes" should be understood as "identification of individual characteristics of the goods to establish its belonging to a certain homogeneous grouping of goods in the HS". Identification precedes the decision on the classification of goods in accordance with the HS and is necessary for the implementation of almost all customs operations, including for tax purposes, technical regulation, statistics, etc. 3.2.2 Assessment of the possibility of implementing the market development strategy in AfricaTwo key factors determine the importance of the continent in the long term: human capital and natural resources. Africa's 54 countries collectively account for about 3% of global GDP and 17% of the world's population. Age of half of the population Africa — under 20 years old (in the world as a whole — under 30 years old). Both of these factors are still marginally involved in the international economic system and are being involved in it at an increasing rate. The consequences are migration flows, growth investments in extractive industries and infrastructure, consumer markets growing faster than the rest of the world, as well as the gradual increase in the weight of Africa and individual African countries in the system of international relations [12].Economic growth makes Africa a promising importer of goods and services. Over the period 2009-2019, the total imports of the continent's countries grew by 1.5% per year (Fig. 2). This is lower than the annual population growth (2.5%), which creates prerequisites for an increase in imports in the medium term. The leaders in terms of import growth rates for the specified period were Guinea (11% per year), DRC and Mozambique (9.5% each). South Africa's imports grew at a rate of 2.4% per year, and the main foreign trade partners Russia on the continent today — Egypt and Algeria — 2.1% and 0.2%, respectively [16].Pic.2. Growth rates of imports of goods and services by African countries, 2010-2019In the next ten years, the continent will develop faster than other regions of the world as a direction for the sale of goods and services of basic demand, primarily due to the growth of demand from the population, the monetization of consumption, overcoming the infrastructure deficit and deepening integration processes. In the medium and long term, the most promising African markets for exports will be the markets of infrastructure projects (primarily electrification and transport), food and agricultural raw materials, fertilizers, as well as education, healthcare and digitalization of the public sector.3.3 Project efficiency evaluation and Entry Mode Strategy in African e-commerce marketThe expected growth of household incomes within the AfCFTA also means the expansion of the regional consumer market. According to the UN forecasts by 2050 the population of the African continent will amount to 2.5 billion people, of which1.6 billion people are the middle class with solvent demand [19]. At the same time, there is already a growing demand in Africa for two categories of goods:consumer goods and luxury goods. The growth of the consumer market also provides opportunities for the development of electronic commerce. As a result, conditions are being created for the implementation of the Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa for 2020-2030 and the liberalization of services related to e-commerce within the framework of AfCFTA. Currently, e-commerce in Africa is developing rapidly, with the largest volume of e-commerce traffic coming from Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. In recent years, new e-commerce markets and retailers have emerged in Africa.We mentioned Jumia before, but there are new platforms of e-commerce with foreign investments intended for the African market. For example, KiliMall is the largest online trading platform launched by Chinese investors in 2014 and based in Kenya. The development of e-commerce means a closer link between the economies of the African continent and opens up new opportunities for the export of African goods to foreign markets, especiallyfor local small and medium-sized businesses.Now we will observe the most popular e-commerce platform – Jumia. The Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA, NYSE) e-commerce platform has risen in price by more than 140% since the beginning of the year. The increase compared to 52-week lows was almost 650%. Investors are positive about the prospects of the startup Jumia Technologies, which is a provider of an e-commerce platform in Africa. The company's solutions allow you to manage the operation of online stores, distribution and sale of products in the largest countries of Africa. In this region, the coronavirus pandemic has led to an explosive demand for online sales as consumers have shunned traditional retail purchases. Jumia Technologies is an online e-commerce platform where clothing, shoes and other goods are sold. The company is also a logistics service that allows the shipment and delivery of parcels from sellers to consumers, and a payment service that facilitates transactions between active participants and the platform. The list of Lumia Technologies partners includes about 50,000 local companies and private entrepreneurs. At the auction on August 4, the JMIA stock was worth $16.28 (Annex, Chart 1).However, investors do really think, if it is profitable to invest in JMIA. And if the investor understands why the performance of the e-commerce platform looks so depressing, and what is his strategy to improve the situation, there are grounds to buy JMIA shares near the current level of $ 6. Over the past four quarters, Lumia has generated revenue of $193 million. The company spent 151 million dollars on general and administrative expenses alone. Adjusted EBITDA loss (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for this period amounted to $ 220 million [28]. In other words, Jumia loses more than a dollar for every dollar of revenue, even without stock-based compensation ($37 million, almost 20% of revenue) or capital expenditures (more than $8 million). Ten years later, in the last four quarters, Jumia's gross merchandise value (GMV) (the number of sales actually generated through the platform, not all of which count as revenue for Jumia) was just over $1 billion. The Lumia balance is admittedly in good shape. The company ended the first quarter with $89 million in cash and $333 million in term deposits and other short-term, relatively liquid assets. The borrowed funds are minimal (only $ 12 million). As we mentioned previously, Amazon is going to but Jumia this year. But it is not clear, what for. Amazon, presumably, can simply use up the funds and overtake Julia in its new markets, just as it has done with most of the contenders in the e-commerce market over the past three decades. At some point, an e-commerce giant will appear in Africa, and most likely not one. But Julia is far from guaranteed to be one of the survivors, especially given that Amazon is now on the horizon. Plan of development, Budget plan and schedule for African markets"New Partnership for Africa's Development" (NEPAD) [63] was adopted by African states to start a new era of Africa development. On the bases of the document the leaders of the continent were to take responsibility for the future their continent,making new relationships and with development partners and organizations, bulding trustful, respectful and accountable relationship. What is NEPAD? NEPAD is the first comprehensive development program initiated, deployed and implemented at the initiative of African Governments based on the full support of the international community. On the bases of the program, the African governments are ready to create the society and economy, as they dream about. Additionally, despite of the basis, strategy or concept of development, the program contains of the plan of particular projects aimed at meeting the needs and solving the complex problems that Africa faces on the way of its development. The goals of NEPAD:To eradicate poverty;To help Africa to develop sustainably and to end marginalization. To create conditions for sustainable development by maintaining peace and security;To improve economic, corporate and political governance;To encourage investment and policy reforms in priority areas such as infrastructure, human resource development, agriculture, environment and science and technology;Intensification of resource mobilization measures, official development assistance and private capital flows, reduction of external debt and diversification of production and exports. According to UNCTAD's research, African countries can solve problems such as poverty, unemployment, commodity dependence and food insecurity, as well as vulnerability to urbanization, climate change and external shocks. This can only happen if African governments and development partners take action in the following key policy areas [60]:a) To encourage structural change. Countries that have successfully implemented the structural reform process have made significant progress in providing employment and eliminating poverty. They convert resources and production factors from low production to high-efficiency activities in all units and units. Unfortunately, not all countries have managed to solve this problem. As a result, the share of the value added of the African manufacturing industry in GDP fell from 15% in 1990 to 11% in 2008. That's why this aspect needs to be resolved as soon as possible.Activation of the measures of mobilization of internal resources. The mobilization of domestic resources also plays a crucial role in addressing the development challenges facing African countries, that will allow the countries to invest into big development projects, and take responsibility for the process of their development and results. African countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa, are characterized by low levels of domestic savings. The average annual savings-to-GDP ratio in sub-Saharan Africa declined from 20% between 1980 and 1989 to 16% in the period 2000-2009. African countries should activate internal resources, by increasing tax base, reforming tax and custom regimes, and also, they should try to stop the flight of the capital.Strengthening regional integration.The reasons for weak regional integration, in particular, includes lack of diversification, low level of infrastructure development, high tariff and non-tariff barriers, as well as inefficient implementation of regional integration agreements. Recently, African leaders have been taking a number of measures to strengthen regional integration. For example, at the eighteenth session of the African Union Summit, held in January 2012, African leaders adopted a plan to create a continental free trade zone in the region. The implementation of this plan will significantly boost intra-African trade. Strengthening of the cooperation of South-South. According to UNCTAD (2010), trade is the most effective means of cooperation between Africa and non-African developing countries. The share of non-African developing countries in African trade increased from about 15% in 1995 to 29% in 2008. Although the strengthening of African countries' contacts with other developing countries has a certain positive impact, it can also put national companies in a more competitive environment and increase commodity dependence. In this context, African countries should make efforts to realize the opportunities that open up within the framework of South−South cooperation and minimize risks. Infrastructure development.It is estimated that infrastructure spending in Africa requires about 93 billion dollars, while as a result of poorly developed infrastructure, the growth rate of income per capita annually loses one percentage point [59]. The deplorable state of infrastructure increases transaction costs and reduces the competitiveness of companies in the region's countries in global export markets. Therefore, the removal of infrastructure constraints is a necessary precondition for structural transformation and growth in Africa. So, these are the main points, that African leaders should focus on. Now we’re going to observe budget issue of the development of Africa. Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambiaare united by the fact that they were all colonies of Great Britain and connected to the British system of fiscal policy (sometimes called "Westminster") in terms of budget legislation and public finance management. In all these countries, budget reforms were carried out 15 years ago, which focused on medium-term budget planning. Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia lived through the emergence of medium-term planning in the late 1990s - early 2000s.The reason why these countries were to collapse was due to years of inefficient economic management, adverse external economic shocks, ultra-high inflation, huge budget deficits that led to external debt crises in the 1980s, and the growing level of poverty. The introduction of medium-term budget planning was also part of the public sector reforms in African countries carried out in African countries in the 1990s. In the report of the Economic Commission еhe UN on Africa in 2003 emphasized that the reforms of the 1990s were designed to ensure fiscal stability, reduce inflation and reduce budget deficits by reducing the size and cost of the state apparatus, primarily by reducing salaries of officials. Recently, Standard and Poor's, which in 2000 took over the function of compiling financial indices of emerging markets from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), used the term "frontier markets" to refer to countries with markets that are smaller and less liquid than in more advanced emerging market countries.Many of the emerging market countries in the 1980s, according to today's classification, could be called "frontier" markets. The term "emerging market countries" is used here to refer to sub-Saharan African countries that have financial markets and attract investor interest. The more general use of the term "emerging market countries" in this article suggests a positive answer to several questions that help determine belonging to a group of such countries. The main feature of successful emerging market countries, regardless of their form of economic organization, is that the private sector is the driving force of growth. Institutional investors want to be sure that economic policy will continue to support the development of the private sector and that private property rights will be protected; in this regard, they have common interests with foreign direct investors. Africa, as a rule, does not have the best indicators of the attractiveness of the business environment, and this makes the continent less an attractive place for investors. Improved performance in this area is likely to be rewarded with additional investment.Today, Mozambique, which has emerged from a long conflict, has restored the confidence of the private sector by taking measures such as ensuring an attractive fiscal regime for megaprojects, including for the large Mosal aluminum plant. Demonstrating high economic performance and respect for the rights of the private sector, Mozambique is creating a balanced tax environment, which, along with macroeconomic stability, makes it an increasingly attractive place to invest.Raising the status of some African countries to emerging markets gives them a tremendous economic opportunity. Access to capital markets is an essential component of high and sustainable growth rates provided by the private sector. Such access was considered impossible for Africa for a long time; now it has become a reality. There are already increasing signs that financial flows are being transformed into an increase in financial intermediation in these countries. To promote sustainable growth, countries must ensure that macroeconomic policies and prudential rules for capital transactionsThey are designed to avoid the trap of volatile short-term flows, and that supervision contributes to the stability of the financial sector and effective mediation.PartnershipEU-Africa relations: political frameworkRelations between the European Union and African States are developing in three formats. Firstly, the interaction of the EU member States with partner countries is implemented on a bilateral basis. Secondly, the European Union as a grouping builds relations with individual states of the continent, for example, with the countries of North Africa within the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy (Union for the Mediterranean) or with five states: Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal during the Framework Program for the New Partnership. In addition, the EU is developing relations with various regional groupings in Africa (SADC, ECOWAS, ECCAS, etc.), as well as with the African Union [53].Cooperation at the level of the two integration groupings started at the first EU-Africa summit in Cairo in 2000. The second summit took place only seven years later in 2007 in Lisbon and laid the political and legal basis for cooperation in a Joint strategy [50]. It is she and the action plans adopted every few years that determine the agenda, goals and priorities of the parties in the development of relations. At the last EU-AU summit in 2017 in Abidjan, four main areas of cooperation were identified: 1) investing in people – education, science, technology and skills development; 2) strengthening resilience, peace, security and governance; 3) migration and mobility; 4) mobilizing investment for structural and sustainable transformation in Africa. An extremely important step in the direction of the previous composition of the European Commission was the creation of the EU-Africa Alliance for Sustainable Investment and Jobs. The aim of the Alliance is to bring the relationship with Africa to a new level. To do so EU offers to invest to education, to raise the qualifications and create opportunities for job. In the next five years alone, the EU plans to create up to 10 million jobs in Africa, while paying special attention to youth employment, as well as attracting more than 100 thousand African students to participate in the program "Erasmus+" and 700 thousand different specialists – in advanced training programs.After the negotiations between the EC and the AU Commission, which took place in Addis Ababa on February 27, 2020 in order to determine the joint program of the upcoming summit in October 2020, the European Union presented a draft of a new strategy and partnership with Africa, which is based on five partnerships:1. Partnership for a “green” transition and access to energy.2. Partnership for Digital Transformation.3. Partnership for sustainable growth and job creation.4. Partnership for Peace and Governance.5. Partnership on Migration and MobilityWithin the framework of the EU has allocated more than 36 million euros to the Pan-African Program to promote integration within the framework of the African FTA. The EU's goal in developing relations with the countries of the African FTA at this stage will rather be to turn the numerous trade agreements between the European Union and African countries into a single free trade agreement between the continents in the long term. 3.4.2 Leveraging stakeholder collaborationChinaBoth at the expert and political levels, it is increasingly noted that China is not only increasing its presence on the continent, but also achieving greater results than Western countries [34]. The success of the Chinese strategy is based on several factors. Concept” there are no five", voiced by Chinese Leader Xi Jinping in 2018 in Beijing during the Forum on Sino-African Cooperation, differs significantly from the usual principle of conditionality characteristic of EU relations with third countries. The Chinese president outlined the main principles of the country 's policy in Africa as follows: non-interference in the promotion of countries on the path of development corresponding to their national conditions;non-interference in the internal affairs of African countries;no imposing their own will on African countries;no political conditionality to aid Africa;there is no desire for selfish political achievements in the field of investment and financing of cooperation with Africa.The above principles give a signal to the countries of the region that China emphasizes its purely economic interest in developing relations and it will not burden partners with additional requirements and conditions for internal reforms, unlike the European Union [21]. China is implementing a new paradigm of relations, which is expressed by the formula: “trade, not aid.” Its presence on the continent. Based on data on FDI volumes published by UNCTAD in 2019, France continues to be the largest foreign investor in Africathanks to both its historical ties and large investments in the main hydrocarbon producing countries (Nigeria, Angola). However, the total volume France's FDI to Africa in 2017 did not increase compared to 2013. The second place is occupied by the Netherlands, which invests mainly in three countries – Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa. China's FDI to Africa, by contrast, increased by more than 50% over a four-year period. The European Union remains Africa's main trading partner, ahead of China and the United States. 3.4.3 Customs dutiesCustoms duties of exports based on the introduction of export duties and quotas is constantly practiced by a few countries of the continent and on a relatively limited scale. African countries are highly dependent on the inflow of foreign exchange earnings from the export of their goods to foreign markets. The use of export customs duties as a basic method of customs taxation of exports can sometimes be directly combined with export quotas. This is done to prevent the massive unregulated export from African countries of goods and valuables that are in consistently high demand in foreign markets, ridges of valuable wood, animal skins, tusks, precious stones, rare metals, etc. In a number of countries exporting rare and exotic goods and valuables, Ghana, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, etc., export customs duties provide from 30 to 80% of the total volume of all taxes collected in the country that go to the state budget.Export customs duties, in fact, are joined by such revenue from the profits of state and semi-state companies and organizations engaged in purchases from local producers of export plantation crops, coffee, cocoa beans, coconut oil, cotton and other traditional African exports. These deductions form 6-13% of the total current revenues of the central budget of most countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. However, in a number of countries on the continent, deductions from the profits of state-owned enterprises and companies are significantly higher, up to 20-25%, primarily due to rent payments established by law, fees directly transferred to the budget by mining enterprises and companies. The category of rent payments that make up the contribution of the public sector to the central budget of the country also includes deductions from the sale of crude oil and petroleum products on world markets, Nigeria, Angola. 3.4.4 Costs in Africa and Payback of the projectWhen making investment decisions at the country level, specific criteria are identified that are amenable to statistical, macroeconomic or expert analysis. The following criteria for making investment decisions are basic, common to all models:1. Macroeconomic situation and economic dynamics in the country (industry), objective assessment of the economic potential of the object of interest to the investor;2. Economic regimes, investment needs and opportunities in the country, competitive environment;3. Legal regimes, taxation, the degree of convenience of doing business (including business infrastructure); investment preferences, which are characterized by the presence of free economic zones, priority territories development in the region, acting as effective mechanisms for the effective use of investment preferences; investment risks. The assessment of this group of factors is based on the analysis of legislative (conditions for investing in certain industries, the degree of development of the legislative framework, the availability of mechanisms for guaranteeing and protecting investments and the level of their coverage), political (the authority of local authorities, the distribution of power between various political groups and parties), social, economic and environmental risks. 4. The human factor of doing business (the situation with human resources, human capital, the availability of personnel necessary for doing business, social problems, subjective factors of doing business — national corporate culture and ethics, the risk of abuse, ethnic and religious factors that can affect the success of an investment project.5. Country risks, including the danger of social cataclysms, coups, armed conflicts within the country and on its borders, intertribal enmity. China has become the main external investor in the last few years, although the EU and the US maintain a dominant position in general, taking into account the accumulated investments in the region. Contrary to existing prejudices, in the context of the global financial crisis, African stock markets turned out to be, on the contrary, the most profitable, showing an average annual yield (+10.3%) and the smallest drop (-17.3%) during the last year of crisis for the stock market. Africa It also turned out to be the market with the lowest investment risk ("beta coefficient"), comparable to the "safe havens" of Arab countries and Japan. The beta factor of Russia at that time was 1.5, i.e. the risk of investment in the Russian economy was one and a half times higher than the global average. Despite the rapid economic growth, huge opportunities and prospects, it is impossible not to take into account the existing risks of doing business in Africa, both economic and socio-political. These are weak fiscal and monetary policy, inflation, instability of local currencies, high taxes, risk of nationalization, low qualifications, underdeveloped infrastructure, bureaucracy. Although the key indicators of the African economy are improving, the conditions for doing business remain quite difficult. The continent suffers from high levels of corruption, low-skilled labor resources, ill-conceived policies and a weak legislative base.21 As a result, African countries traditionally occupy low places in the World Bank's "Doing Business" rating, although in recent years there has been a tendency to improve the situation. According to the rating, Mauritius, South Africa and Botswana are the three most favorable countries for doing business. Adjustments can lead to an increase of 8-10%23. As for investment risks, there is a slow but fairly steady process of reducing them, however, progress is uneven, its pace and scale vary by country, and by industry and business areas. Armed conflicts should be attributed to the most significant ones. Both the West and the local religious and tribal elite are interested in their termination, which is rapidly enriching itself in conditions of normal cooperation with external partners. There are still tasks ahead of reforming and modernizing state structures, overcoming gaps in legislation, in particular in the judicial and arbitration system, in civil codes. A separate group of problematic issues is the narrowness of the regulatory framework in the field of protecting the rights of investors and entrepreneurship in general. 3.5 Recommendations and measures to improve the organization and development of electronic commerce in AfricaE-commerce in Africa can be improved by bridging the digital divide through regulatory reform. The basic ICT infrastructure needed to support efficient e-commerce can be developed and improved by opening up all aspects of Africa's telecommunications sector to competitors. These investors have the financial strength to cover the high costs of ICT development, and if they are well regulated, they may be interested in providing high-quality telecommunications services in the future. Thus, the regulation of market liberalization set the pace of development of ICT infrastructure in African countries experiencing difficulties. In addition, government involvement is necessary to increase awareness and trust in the field of ICT. Reforms aimed at ICT literacy programs will stimulate the use of information technologies by a large number of people, thus laying the foundation for a future ICT-savvy population that can use and benefit from e-commerce [17, p. 25]. While the adoption of laws against cybercrime and enforcement of such rules with the help of a special team of highly qualified cyber police and CERT employees will increase user confidence in electronic commerce. ConclusionThe study highlighted the ways of introducing e-commerce in African countries. We have revealed the history of technology development in Africa, its background and current situation. We also reviewed the trends and recommendations of business development in Africa, including the steps that need to be taken for this. After analyzing the history of the market, its development of imports and exports, we came to the conclusion that Africa is a fairly profitable territory for the development of business and international relations. This was facilitated by the support of partner countries, their investments and the development of the economy, industry and technology. Africa is on the verge of flourishing and soon this territory will become one of the most developed and richest in the world.ReferencesАбрамова И.О. Новая роль Африки в мировой экономике ХХI века. — М., 2013. — С. 5.Головцова И.Г.Электронная коммерция: учеб. пособие. – СПб., 2017.Давыдов В. 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